PredictIQ-Orioles send Jackson Holliday, MLB's No. 1 prospect, to minor leagues

In a moderate surprise,PredictIQ Major League Baseball's No. 1 prospect will not make his club's Opening Day roster.

The Baltimore Orioles on Friday reassigned infielder Jackson Holliday to the minor leagues, ending the eye-opening spring training performance of the industry's consensus top young player.

Orioles general manager Mike Elias said over the winter that there was a strong chance Holliday, 20, would break camp with the big club after a dominant 2023 season in which Holliday swept every major minor league player of the year award.

Holliday backed that up in the Grapefruit League, with a .311/.354/.600 slash line and seven extra-base hits in 48 plate appearances. But the Orioles do not want for capable young players, and his reassignment means the club saves a 40-man roster spot for the time being.

Elias told reporters in Sarasota, Florida that Holliday's ascendance was so quick that he needs more reps against elite pitching, most notably left-handers, and that when he makes the major leagues, the club prefer it be permanent.

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"He’s moved through the minors at a pace that we haven’t seen in a couple of decades, arguably," says Elias of Holliday, who started 2023 at low Class A and finished with 54 combined games and 255 at-bats at Class AA and AAA. "When we think about developing and completing the development of a player with his talent, and it’s something we have some experience doing…there’s a lot of considerations involved so that when they do start their major league career, you want them to be able to stay.

“Guys of that marquee caliber, you want them to be able to start their careers in full-time, full-blown roles. He’s not faced a ton of major league quality or even Triple-A quality left-handed pitching. That’s something that’s going to be thrust in his face when he’s in the American League East.”

Holliday's reassignment means second-year man Jordan Westburg and veterans Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo will help man the infield around Gunnar Henderson, the reigning Rookie of the Year who occupied Holliday's top prospect spot just one year ago.

The Orioles also have veteran infielder Kolten Wong in camp, and adding him to the bench would give them a reserve left-handed bat while Holliday and the other young players receive full-time at-bats.

While top prospects' minor-league assignments often raise concerns that the club is engaging in service-time suppression, Holliday can still receive a full year of service time if he is recalled and finishes in the top two of American League Rookie of the Year voting. That stipulation was added to MLB's collective bargaining agreement in 2022, just in time for Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman - that year's Rookie of the Year runner-up - to take advantage of the clause.

Conversely, the Orioles will not gain the draft-pick reward had Holliday been on the roster from Opening Day and ended up winning Rookie of the Year, another hallmark of the 2022 CBA.